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​Watchlist 1/11/16-1/15/16

Energy Partners LP (NGL)
Stock surged on Friday over 40% on news that the company sold one of its assets for 350 million in cash.  This may run again on Monday and I actually hope it does because it will mean, more profits when I initiate a short position.  Adding this on my watch list.  I am looking to short on the first sign of selling.
 
Athersys, Inc. (ATHX)
Another stock that had a 20% increase in one day, as the rest of the markets limped along.  This stock is up on a license agreement with a potential total value of 200 million.  It held on Friday and was up in after hours.  This can potentially be a gap play on Monday. 
It’s almost difficult to tell.  Paying attention to key levels on Monday.  If it surpasses Friday’s HOD on volume, it can run. 
If it’s having difficulties maintaining that high, I will look to initiate a short. 
 
Weight loss Plays (ARNA, PLNT, WTW, FIT)
To be clear, these weight loss stocks are still on my watch list as potential longs. I am watching the overall market and the behavior of each individual stock before I place an order. 
 
WTW and FIT were both badly beaten down last week, along with the overall markets.  WTW shed 20% on allegations that a customer found a bug in her meal.  FIT also lost around 20% last week, as the Street didn’t seem to be optimistic about their new device.
 
If we can get sentiment to turn positive, even briefly, the weight loss stocks may actually do what they tend to do around this time and that is go up. 
 
Watch list recap from 12/28/’15-1/8/’16
LEI- +30%
ARNA- (10%)
WTW- (30%)
PLNT- flat
FIT- (27%)
 
OMER- (25%)
ADMS- +20%
JRJC- +20%
RWLK- +20%
 
Watchlist’s net percentage gain is about 4%, when the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P were down between 5-7%. 

​Watchlist 1/19/16-1/22/16

 
Code Rebel Corp (CDRB)
This stock gained over 68% on Friday.  Considerably short biased, I am looking to short at the first sign of weakness.  I will repeat; I wait for a confirmation of a downtrend before shorting. 
 
Alon Blue Square Israel Ltd (BSI)
Up over 100% from January 13ths closing price.   The stock went up on news that “it had received an offer from Big Shopping Centers Ltd. and Mega Or Holdings Ltd., Israeli companies traded on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, to purchase 53.8% of the outstanding shares of Blue Square Real Estate Ltd. ("BSRE") held by the Company”.
This stock went as high as 8.06 on Friday but retraced over 30% to settle at a close of 5.30.   Looking to short. 
 
CyberArk Software, Ltd. (CYBR)
Stock is up on rumors of a buy-out.  Rumors on Wallstreet are usually a telltale sign for me that the worse is yet to come.  I won’t go as far as to say the writing is on the wall for Cyber Securities but I will continue to short rallies.  I never rush into a short position but always wait for a confirmation that a downtrend has begun before initiating a position. 
 
Speculative LONG play
Nxt-ID, Inc. (NXTD)
I have been watching this stock since the beginning of January.  Since printing a low of .22 on January 7th, this stock has advanced considerably while the overall market has seen a sharp decline.  I believe momentum is building and this stock can print a dollar or more in the next few days to weeks; representing a possible upside of 40% or more (I believe with the right conditions we can see over 100% return in a short time).  I should CAUTION that this is a “super speculative” play and I treat plays like this as, “all or nothing”.  Meaning, I go into it with the understanding that I can possibly lose the entirety of my principal.  Because of this, I generally allocate no more than 1% of my total trading capital on this stock.  (Eg.  A $5K account, I wouldn’t allocate more than $50 on this stock).  
Another word of CAUTION; I do not hold shares for a long time; meaning I am unloading as it gains in percentage points.  
 
I am going into this week with the same level of caution I discussed last week.  Overall, I am looking to short rallies. 
 
Last week’s recap
 
NGL- +20% gain
ATHX-  +10% gain
 
More words of caution
I have sat on the sidelines multiple times, firmly believing that if there is no trade, you don’t need to trade.  Monies isn’t made being in the market everyday, the only ones happy to see you trade everyday is your broker!  Do not underestimate the compounding power of small consistent gains.
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Fun math: A $50 daily gain adds up to $12000 at the end of the year!!!
 
Cheers


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This website is for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy, sell and/or hold any securities mentioned.  All investments carry risk, there are no guarantees. Investors should consult with their advisers with respect to their investments.  Please read our full disclaimer here. 

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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